Can the Nintendo Switch Still Catch the PS2?
Nintendo’s financials dropped several days ago and the OG Switch is sitting at life-to-date sales of 155.92 million.
I have thoughts on Sony retconningthe PS2’s LTD as soon as the Switch began to get close but that’s a separate discussion.
Does it still have a chance at reaching 160 million? I still think it has a shot - but it’s going to be tougher than I thought. In the Q3 financial report post, I said:
“If Nintendo is forecasting 2.5 to 3 million additional Switch 1 units next year, that’s encouraging. If it’s less than that, it suggests they may not be aggressively chasing the all-time record.”
In Nintendo’s latest financials, they project Switch to sell 2 million units next FY. Now, Switch missed it’s target of 4 million units by 200k - selling a total 3.80 million during the year. Still an impressive number for a system this late into its lifecycle. Now that the Switch 2 is out and the new price increases hitting OG Switch in Japan - its strongest market still - I think Nintendo is being reasonable with the 2 million unit forecast.
Nintendo’s New OG Switch Forecast
Nintendo originally projected 4 million Switch 1 units for FY2026 and ultimately sold around 3.8 million. That’s an impressive number for a system this late into its lifecycle.
But for FY2027, Nintendo is only forecasting 2 millionadditional Switch 1 units sold.
I was initially hoping Nintendo would guide closer to 2.5-3 million units, especially considering how strong the platform still is globally and how massive the installed user base already is.
However, that 2 million forecast would’ve felt low to me if price increases weren’t announced the same day. Japan in particular has is seeing its second price hike on Switch 1 hardware - there was a worldwide increase effective August 3, 2025.
From Nintendo’s perspective, it probably makes sense to lower expectations a bit rather than risk over-projecting during a period of rising costs and economic uncertainty.
Even with the price increases, I honestly think the original Switch could outperform Nintendo’s forecast.
The platform still has incredible brand recognition, a gigantic software library, and broad appeal across multiple demographics. And unlike previous Nintendo platforms late in their lifecycle, the Switch ecosystem still feels very active.
There’s also the reality that not everyone is going to immediately jump to Switch 2.
So… Can It Catch the PS2?
That’s the big question now.
Nintendo forecasting only 2 million Switch 1 units next fiscal year definitely makes the path toward surpassing the PS2 tighter than I was hoping for. But I don’t think the dream is dead yet.
Whether it actually catches the PS2 will depend on several factors:
How aggressively Nintendo continues supporting the hardware
Whether manufacturing and component costs stabilize
How much software support remains
And how quickly consumers fully transition to Switch 2
If Nintendo keeps the system visible, affordable, and stocked with evergreen software, I think there’s still a real path forward.
If Nintendo hits their forecast, Switch will be sitting at 157.92M by end of March 2027 - just 2.08 million away from the 160 million unit milestone.
We will track Switch 1 sales each corner to see how it’s performing!