Is Nintendo Low-balling it’s Switch 2 forecast again!?

After looking over Nintendo’s latest financial forecast, I can’t help but feel like Nintendo is intentionally playing things conservative with the Switch 2 again.

They did this last fiscal year as well, with their 15M unit forecast. As we know, the Switch completely shattered that forecast and ended up at 19.86M.

Nintendo is currently projecting 16.5 million Switch 2 units sold for the next fiscal year. On paper, that’s still a massive number. But considering the momentum the system already has, I honestly think the console could end up outperforming that forecast pretty comfortably.

And if and when it does, I don’t think Nintendo would be surprised at all.

Nintendo has more of a reason to be cautious now though. The OG Switch and Switch 2 are both seeing price increases. And that would create less demand. There are a lot of variables for Nintendo to consider right now - from rising component and memory costs, tariff uncertainty, and general global economic concerns. Looking at this from Nintendo’s perspective, it’s probably smarter to lower expectations upfront rather than assume continued explosive growth in a volatile and uncertain market. They can always revise upward later; which I fully expect them to do - especially if the release calendar fills out as nicely as I anticipate for the Fall/Winter quarters.

I also believe that Nintendo is trying to sell as many consoles during the summer months with solid bundle options being made available prior to the North American price increase in September.

But even with all of that, I still think the forecast feels low.

The Switch 2 already has enormous momentum, strong third-party support, and Nintendo hasn’t even fully unleashed its biggest first-party heavy hitters yet. If the software lineup remains strong throughout the year - and especially if titles like Splatoon Raiders, Star Fox, and future holiday releases land well - I absolutely see the system outperforming that 16.5 million projection easily.

Nintendo has a lot of momentum going in the next fiscal year.

Let’s see how things play out in the rest of this calendar year!