DOCUMENTS:
Financial Results Explanatory Material
Consolidated Highlights
HIGHLIGHTS:
2.67M Switch 2 units shipped, that’s -41.2% YoY
Switch 2 LTD sales stands at 26.35 million
0.61M Switch 1 units shipped (-33% YoY)
Switch 1 LTD sales stand at a total of 157.20 million
The 41.2% decline this quarter for Switch 2 compared to the same period last year is easy to explain. The U.S. and European price increases went into effect September 1, meaning these quarterly results reflect one month at the higher price in the West. Japan's price increase took effect earlier, on May 25, so that market experienced the higher price throughout the quarter.
I also think a lot of demand was pulled forward into the previous quarter as consumers purchased their systems ahead of the announced price increases.
So for the first half of the fiscal year, Nintendo shipped 6.49 million Switch 2 systems. Its full-year forecast remains at 16.5 million, meaning it needs to ship over 10 million more units by March 31.
I think they can make it.
Ocarina of Time Could Be the Holiday Boost Nintendo Needs
The third quarter is traditionally Nintendo's biggest selling period, and I think this one could be particularly interesting. For starters, we have The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, which has already gotten off to an incredible start. Nintendo announced that the remake sold 5.2 million copies in its first four days, including more than 810,000 in Japan.
That's phenomenal.
10 million is a lock for this game. But we’ll see if it can make it to 15 or even 20 million over time.
I think the Switch 2 could ship at least 7 million units during the holiday quarter. That's my floor, with 10 million being my optimistic ceiling. Between Ocarina of Time, the holiday shopping season, and the rest of Nintendo's lineup, I think there's plenty of momentum to work with.
Looking further ahead, we already know Metroid Ravenous is coming in January 2027, and I'm hoping the new Kirby adventure arrives in March. That would give Nintendo another major release to help close out the fiscal year.
I originally thought the 16.5-million hardware forecast was a lock, but the slowdown makes things a little more interesting. Ultimately, Q3 is going to tell us a lot about whether the Switch 2 will make it.
The OG Switch Is Still Doing Numbers
Now, here's another interesting development.
Nintendo shipped another 610,000 original Switch systems during the quarter, bringing its lifetime total to 157.2 million units. That's down 33% year over year, but the original Switch is still selling!
Nintendo's full-year forecast is 2 million units, and it has already shipped 1.27 million during the first half. I think it'll comfortably exceed that forecast.
My expectation is somewhere between 800,000 (floor) and 1.2 million (ceiling) units during Q3 alone. Add another 600,000 or so during Q4, and we could be looking at approximately 159.6 million lifetime sales by the end of the fiscal year. That brings us right up against the PlayStation 2's retconned 160 million milestone.
The Switch could finally become the best-selling console of all time.
I've been watching this race for years. I think FY 2028 is when the Switch will not only beat the PS2 but shatter that 160 million record. OG Switch deserves to reach that milestone. It’s an amazing console.
Star Fox and Fire Emblem Deliver!
Now, let's talk software!
Two of my favorite franchises had some pretty impressive results. Star Fox has sold 1.17 million copies since its release in June. Fantastic! That game deserves it, and I'm hoping it continues selling. I'd love to see it reach 3 million, and pushing toward 5 million would be even better.
Then there's Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave, which has already sold 1.34 million copies since its September release. Those are fantastic numbers for one of my favorite gaming franchises. People showed up for this one, and I love seeing Fire Emblem continue to find an audience.
Here are the updated LTDs - again, big shout out to Mazi over at Install Base forums:
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 72.00M (+470K)
Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 50.63M (+340K)
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 38.50M (+360K)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 34.28M (+220K)
Super Mario Odyssey - 31.06M (+260K)
Pokémon Scarlet and Violet - 28.66M (+200K)
Pokémon Sword and Shield - 27.36M (+100K)
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom - 22.90M (+190K)
Super Mario Party - 21.39M (+30K)
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 19.22M (+120K)
Mario Kart World - 16.48M (+1.09M)
Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream - 8.83M (+870K)
Donkey Kong Bananza - 5.05M (+270K)
Pokémon Legends: Z-A – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition - 4.04M (+50K)
Pokémon Pokopia - 4.04M (+360K) (sales outside Japan only)
Rhythm Heaven Groove - 2.89M
Splatoon Raiders - 2.42M
Kirby Air Riders - 1.94M (+40K)
Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave - 1.34M
Super Mario Party Jamboree – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition - 1.28M (+130K)
Star Fox - 1.17M
Nintendo Has a Bright Future Ahead
Overall, I'm feeling pretty good about Nintendo's position.
Yes, Switch 2 hardware sales have slowed, and the price increases certainly introduce another challenge. But the system has already reached 26.35 million units, Ocarina of Time is off to a record-breaking start, and Nintendo has a solid lineup heading into 2027.
Meanwhile, the original Switch is still selling and is getting closer to overtaking the PS2.
And I'm particularly excited about what Nintendo has planned for next year. Between Metroid Ravenous, Kirby, Xenoblade Chronicles: Genesis, Pokémon Winds and Waves, and whatever other surprises Nintendo has up its sleeve, there's plenty to look forward to.
I think 2027 is going to be a huge year for the Switch 2.
Nintendo has to have a great Q3 in order to meet its hardware forecast, but I'm optimistic.
Let's see what happens!